Durham County began its 2010-11 budget process Wednesday, with projections for more expense, less revenue and an increase in the property-tax rate.

"Next year is really going to be worse than this year," County Manager Mike Ruffin told the Board of Commissioners during a budget work session.

County departments can plan on tightening belts again, too. For the current fiscal year, they were trimmed an average of 6 percent from their 2007-08 appropriations.

"We are still looking at doing a lot of reducing in the county's budget next year," Ruffin said.

The prospect of raising taxes in the current economic climate did not sit well with the commissioners, but staff estimates for the county's balance sheet were grim.

The county faces a $4.37 million increase in debt service costs, with county revenue expected to drop $9.8 million from the current fiscal year. Appropriations from the state government are expected to go down as well.

"We're in a dangerous situation," Commissioner Joe Bowser said. Two years of declining revenue is a trend that should be heeded, he said.

"That's a strong indication of what we're going to see until this economy starts to turn over," Bowser said.

Vehicles and other hardware will need servicing and replacement, and staffs for two new libraries will have to be paid. County employees will see no raises and spending will be cut, Ruffin said, but, all in all, a tax increase appears inevitable.

"It's not a question of whether, but of how much," Ruffin said. "What do you want to do?"

Ruffin was not asking for an answer right away, but did want a consensus on some proposed guidelines that included a 75.53-cent cap on the property-tax rate. The current rate is 70.81 cents per $100 valuation, meaning the owner of a $200,000 home gets a bill for about $1,416. At a 75.53-cent rate, the tax bill would be about $1,511.

Durham County's last rate increase, about 2 cents per $100 valuation or 3 percent, came in 2008. City property owners also pay a city property tax, currently 54 cents per $100. The city has given no indication it might raise taxes next year.

"I'm not advocating tax increase," said commissioners Chairman Michael Page, "but I think many of our citizens recognize what we are up against."

Besides raising taxes, outside agencies that get county appropriations can expect cuts next year. Those include Durham Public Schools, the Museum of Life and Science and about 25 nonprofit agencies.

"Nothing is sacred," Ruffin said. "There'll be fur flying."

Wednesday's meeting was the earliest county staff has ever brought the commissioners into a budgeting process, Ruffin said.

"It's important to have you involved early," he said. "This is a different climate."